“It’s usually the busiest time of yr, however this summer time has been sluggish at Walt Disney World,” “Take a look at Observe shouldn’t go down proper as peak season begins,” and “the parks must be packed however our dates had been useless” are issues we’ve heard lately–together with a number of comparable sentiment. This comes as no shock, since summer time crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.
The one factor summer time hasn’t been, although, is peak season. Not for a very long time. Again on June 26, 2017 we first revealed: Summer time Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World. That defined how, regardless of the standard knowledge that Memorial Day by means of Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the yr in Florida, summer time crowds weren’t as unhealthy as previously. It provided a number of potential theories explaining the why of this.
Whereas quite a bit has modified within the 7 (!!!) years since that publish was revealed, its sentiment rings true at the moment. The reasons for decrease crowds in June and July apply virtually equally in 2024 as they did in 2016-2018. There clearly have been some main modifications over the past a number of years, which is exactly why we’re revisiting this subject. So we’d as properly begin with an “replace” from 2019 by means of 2023…
As we’ve famous elsewhere, Walt Disney World has not skilled a “regular” summer time in a number of years–since 2018. That is most likely an enormous motive why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer time slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer time has constantly been sluggish over the last 7 years.
There’s additionally the truth that many people Walt Disney World followers are dinosaurs (in a great way!). A few of us are engaged on prolonged timelines, and we are inclined to seek advice from the third gate because the Disney-MGM Studios (or just “MGM”), nonetheless groan about appetizers and ideas now not being included on the Disney Eating Plan, or suppose that they “simply” reimagined Spaceship Earth (the present model is now the longest-running).
No shock that it takes us some time to regulate to modifications in crowd traits–we generally nonetheless consider February or October because the low season, and, because it seems, summer time as peak season.
Let’s begin this recap with Summer time 2019, which was sluggish–very sluggish. That was within the lead-up to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, throughout a window we dubbed the “Pre-Star Wars Hunch.” Principally, followers had been suspending visits till after that new land opened, leading to summer time being even slower than the (new) regular.
Low attendance and resort occupancy through the first few months truly pushed Disney to maneuver ahead that land’s debut, which is why it opened with out Rise of the Resistance. (There have been additionally distinctive offers that yr, together with an unprecedented three waves of Free Eating.)
Then there was Summer time 2020. The notorious yr of the COVID closure. June broke information for low crowd ranges…as a result of all 4 parks had been closed. The phased reopening of the theme parks started on July 11, with all 4 Walt Disney World parks reopened by July 15. Even as soon as operational, the parks used reservations and solely allowed 20-30% of their full capability.
That didn’t matter throughout Summer time 2020, because the parks couldn’t even hit that low mark. Suffice to say, the early a part of the phased reopening was considerably slower than even the brand new regular and was an anomaly for apparent causes. Anybody who has blocked what occurred out their reminiscence goes to rightfully disregard wait occasions information from the second half of 2020.
Then got here Summer time 2021. That is the place issues get actually attention-grabbing! Vacationers had been anxiously awaiting the tip of well being security protocol, ready to e-book holidays. And after months of half-measures and rumors, Walt Disney World ended all COVID-era restrictions on June 15, 2021. The one downside? They didn’t announce these modifications till June 11.
Since there’s a lag between reserving and touring, crowds didn’t actually warmth up till July (versus Florida-wide stats displaying airports and lodges doing blockbuster numbers from early June). From there, wait occasions information elevated each single week till early August. I’ll always remember our bonkers July 28 go to to Magic Kingdom, which was the busiest day since March 2020.
That was additionally the day that Walt Disney World introduced they’d reinstate indoor face masks guidelines as of July 30. And with that, the revenge journey get together got here to a crashing conclusion–or not less than, a short lived pause.
Enter Summer time 2022, the “do over” season for pent-up demand. Whereas the peak of the post-COVID journey occurred that winter and spring, all the yr was busy. That included June and July. Wait occasions for each months had been properly above-trend, which was true for actually each single month of 2022.
From my perspective, what’s extra attention-grabbing than than total month-to-month numbers is the trajectory of crowds. Summer time wait occasions peaked in early June and decreased constantly from there–the precise reverse of the yr prior! On this case, the rationale was very completely different: rising fuel costs, inflation, and fears concerning the broader financial system.
However, it was a scorching summer time at Walt Disney World by any cheap account. It will thus be silly to match the final two years to 2022 except doing so within the context of the exhaustion of pent-up demand (as we’ve achieved). In any other case, you run the danger of falling right into a narrative about each season/month/week/day experiencing a slowdown. When actually, it’s a reversion to the imply.
That brings us to Summer time 2023. Final summer time wasn’t that irregular, however did have its personal distinctive wrinkles. The massive one which garnered mainstream media protection was how Independence Day was downright useless at Walt Disney World. It was such a sizzling subject that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably unhealthy climate, even by summer time in Orlando requirements. He wasn’t unsuitable, however that was additionally solely a part of the story–Disney had overly aggressive ticket blockouts that had been the overriding subject.
Aside from that, what I discovered considerably shocking about final summer time was that it had ‘twin peaks.’ There was one peak exactly while you’d anticipate in a traditional (2016-2018) summer time across the final week of June. (It will’ve been early July, however for these blockouts.) However there was one other peak on the finish of July. My finest concept is that this was a ‘final hurrah’ for households wanting to go to earlier than faculty went again into session in August–but it surely’s simply that, a concept.
Regardless, summer time crowd ranges had been decrease throughout the board. Definitely not on par with the low season and even shoulder season, however undoubtedly not what you’d anticipate when you final skilled summer time at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Nicely…as long as you ignore the dreadful climate. Minor asterisk.
In any case of that, we arrive at Summer time 2024. Under is a have a look at weekly wait occasions not simply from this yr, however from the beginning of 2022 to indicate pent-up demand in motion, in addition to the exhaustion thereof. (As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com.)
Crowds to date this yr have been in every single place. The primary three months had been busier than anticipated, the primary time there have been month-to-month will increase in wait time averages as in comparison with the prior yr since January 2023. (Which means that Jan/Feb/March 2024 had been busier than Jan/Feb/March 2023.) This led us to theorize about Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024–a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand, that means followers visited in 2022, took a yr off, and had been now returning.
The idea didn’t maintain up for lengthy. April dropped like a rock, and though May very well did improve a bit (on account of final yr having a really low flooring), now June 2024 is down significantly. Final June, the typical wait time was 37 minutes–that’s a 5/10 or reasonable crowd degree. June 2024 is seeing common wait occasions of 33 minutes, for a low degree common of three/10. That’s solely a few minutes, but it surely does quantity to 2 ranges–and all provides up over the course of the day.
Most notable is Magic Kingdom, which has a 25 minute common for a crowd degree of 1/10 in June 2024. That is down as in comparison with 31 minutes for 4/10 final yr. (For those who’re questioning concerning the resort-wide vs. Magic Kingdom discrepancy, it’s as a result of common wait occasions for every crowd degree fluctuate per park–DHS is the worst, MK is the perfect.) Hollywood Studios has additionally seen an enormous drop. On the different finish of the spectrum, EPCOT is comparatively unchanged. Proof optimistic that folks truly love CommuniCore Corridor? Or perhaps they only hate Big Filth Pits?!
It’s additionally price mentioning that wait occasions are additionally growing as of this week, with at the moment (June 19, 2024) having crowd ranges of 5/10. Though three days is just too early to name it a pattern, this gradual improve is exactly what we’d anticipate to see taking place within the two weeks main as much as Independence Day, with a gradual downslope within the two weeks after.
With that clarification and up to date historical past out of the way in which, let’s discuss theories as to why summer time is slower now (2016-2019; 2023-2024) than it was again within the day…
The largest motive for decrease crowds through the summer time is pricing. This was extra apparent again once we first revealed this publish, because the pattern grew to become very seen within the couple of years after Walt Disney World moved to seasonal ticket pricing. That solely accelerated as soon as date-based charges had been launched for multi-day tickets, and with summer time being one of many costlier occasions of the yr.
Anyway, for each tickets and resort rooms, summer time pricing tends to be properly above-average from Memorial Day by means of the primary weekend of August. To make certain, there are occasions when room charges and ticket costs spike larger (a lot larger), significantly round holidays and spring break. Nevertheless, no different multi-month interval has the identical sustained degree of upper costs.
Recognizing the truth that summer time costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of massive reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating provide.
All of that has undoubtedly moved the needle for 2024 (that means numbers can be even worse however for these promos!), but it surely’s nonetheless not sufficient. The typical customer to Walt Disney World doesn’t do a lot planning–many have a look at costs on the web site as soon as, and if that’s out of their finances, they don’t go to.
For a lot of guests, the elevated costs in June and July are vital. Between lodges and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer time trip might be over $1,000 for a household of 5, and that’s sufficient to justify suspending a go to for many individuals. Even a 1-day summer time go to may price an additional $100 or so for a household.
In fact, it additionally doesn’t matter for some households. Summer time is probably the most handy time for them to go to on account of faculty breaks, in order that’s after they go. That is the rationale for summer time being the height vacationer season within the first place. For many years, summer time has seen sustained crowds at nearly each vacationer vacation spot, for that very motive.
Nevertheless, we might posit that this issues much less and fewer within the post-COVID local weather. After prolonged stretches out of faculty, studying (and dealing!) remotely, households are much less “afraid” to drag their youngsters out of faculty for trip. Not all households and even most households, however simply sufficient to maneuver the needle.
There has undoubtedly been a normalization of crowd ranges, and distant faculty/work together with hybrid work/play journeys are among the many main explanations. Anecdotally, we’ve heard from an increasing number of readers who do precisely this. We are able to’t again it up with exhausting stats, but it surely passes the odor check and appears extremely believable to us.
This brings us to the subsequent massive issue, which is climate. Floridians keep dwelling when the forecast turns unseasonably sizzling, humid or wet. Vacationers can’t rapidly pivot and people already booked received’t cancel–however they’ll seemingly spend much less time within the parks per day. Equally as vital, they might be shifting journeys away from the summer time months, on account of extra stories of oppressive climate.
Issues had been fairly unhealthy final summer time. The Orlando space noticed record-setting highs on a number of events, and had temperatures constantly within the 90s, with “looks like” temperatures properly above 100º. In that type of warmth, you may as well guess that many Annual Passholders opted to skip their weekend day journey.
In fact, it’s no information that summer time is unbearably sizzling and humid in Central Florida. This isn’t a latest growth, so that you would possibly argue that it shouldn’t quantity to a change. Nevertheless, the final couple summers have been particularly brutal, and as extra individuals avail themselves of on-line planning assets, vacationers turn into extra cognizant of simply how sizzling and humid summers are in Florida.
Add to that the aforementioned willingness to drag youngsters out of faculty, and there’s a situation the place households have info and incentive to not go to in the summertime. Others who’re reluctant or unable to skip faculty would possibly merely be extra inclined to go to throughout breaks.
After brutal climate final June by means of August, I questioned the knowledge of visiting this time of yr. And but, we did once more for previews of Tiana’s Bayou Journey…simply as one other warmth wave arrived. Whereas I “need to” return for analysis throughout all months of the yr, summer time is solely undesirable for a household trip.
One other issue is the shortage of particular occasions to prop up summer time numbers. That is considerably an outgrowth of climate, as a result of Walt Disney World merely can’t schedule runDisney races or outside ESPN Broad World of Sports activities competitions in June or July. At the least, not with out dire penalties because of the warmth and humidity.
EPCOT additionally doesn’t have a summer time competition for the primary time since 2020, a transfer that actually shocked us–we actually anticipated one thing for the launch of CommuniCore. Regardless, this should be based mostly within the sensible actuality that summer time festivals merely usually are not as in style with locals or vacationers. They’re not “price it” for Disney to run.
Then there’s the Disney Conferences enterprise for company occasions, which has fewer excessive profile conventions on the summer time schedule. Whereas I can’t communicate to it with authority, I’d assume Disney Weddings is an analogous story. (It’s additionally not as impactful on attendance both manner.)
There are seemingly different variables I’m overlooking that might assist clarify why summer time attendance has been down. Different components may be at play, and in combination might have a noticeable affect, however I believe these variables can be one thing guests wouldn’t discover if it weren’t for the pricing, post-COVID schedule disruptions, and the climate.
Lastly, there’s the chance that the overhaul of Incapacity Entry Service to cut back abuse and misuse is having a optimistic affect on wait occasions. This was one of many driving forces behind the crackdown, and it’ll occur. Truthfully, I’m type of shocked by all the cynicism about this being solely to push extra Lightning Lane gross sales. That’ll additionally occur, but it surely’s each.
As we’ve mentioned repeatedly in different contexts, queueing is a zero-sum sport. If in case you have one class of company benefitting disproportionately from a sure system, whether or not that be DAS or Lightning Lanes, there may be essentially one other class, standby company, who’re deprived. This isn’t even theoretical! Disney has been sued over lodging for disabled company previously, and these stats have come out throughout discovery and testimony.
Regardless, I don’t suppose the crackdown is considerably transferring the needle but. Nicely, it most likely is as of the final week or so, but it surely wasn’t like flipping a change the day that the DAS modifications rolled out. It will take time for uptake and the brand new DAS customers to work their manner by means of the system. That’ll undoubtedly be a contributing issue to decrease year-over-year wait occasions from the second half of June and past, although.
Then there’s theoretical delayed journeys for Tiana’s Bayou Journey opening, much like the pre-Star Wars Hunch of 2019. I discover this to be implausible at scale. We’ve seen nothing to point a significant variety of company postponed journeys within the lead-up to Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind or TRON Lightcycle Run, nor had been there noticeable spikes after these debuted.
They had been, basically, non-factors. That is truly an attention-grabbing subject in and of itself (one in every of my theories is that the complexity of accessing new sights has given company chilly toes about planning round them), however past the scope of this publish. Regardless, I’ve a really tough time believing that Tiana’s Bayou Journey has extra drawing energy than both of these. (Nation Bear Musical Jamboree, alternatively…)
If we’re theorizing about postponed journeys for brand new issues, I’d be inclined to say that Epic Universe is having a much more vital affect on Walt Disney World than Tiana’s Bayou Journey. Though that’s at Common Orlando, there’s apparent overlap, and a brand new park has far more drawing energy than a reimagined experience.
Furthermore, Common’s summer time slowdown is much more pronounced than Walt Disney World’s (2024 vs. 2023 per wait occasions information). That’s precisely what you’d anticipate to see if a significant variety of individuals are delaying visits–a serious affect on Common and spillover at Walt Disney World.
In the end, it’s true that wait occasions have been below-average to date in Summer time 2024, with crowd ranges of round 3/10. It’s additionally true that this isn’t actually a latest growth. That’s, except you’re evaluating to the pent-up demand interval, by which case we may have articles about each single time of the yr, contending that [insert month] is now low season. Summer time being slower was the new-normal for just a few years pre-COVID closures, and why it appears notable this yr is as a result of issues have been irregular for therefore many summers that it’s exhausting to recollect what regular even is as of late.
Earlier than you learn all of this and suppose that summer time all of a sudden feels like a good time to go to, uh, don’t. For those who beforehand dominated out a summer time trip to Walt Disney World, think about the chance that you just did so for good motive. I’m not saying you’ll have a foul time–as we regularly say, “a wet day at Walt Disney World is best than an ideal day at dwelling.” That’s true as at all times.
What I’ll say is that no matter “good points” you’ll expertise throughout summer time at Walt Disney World by advantage of objectively decrease crowd ranges and wait occasions will likely be worn out by subjectively inferior all the pieces else. For those who pressured me to decide on between mid-June and mid-December, I’d select the latter with out hesitation.
Not simply because I really like Christmas, however as a result of I do know I may overcome the upper crowd ranges by advantage of excellent technique or, fairly merely, spending extra hours within the parks per day due to much less weather-induced fatigue. Acknowledged in a different way, it’s infinitely simpler to beat the crowds than it’s the climate.
For those who’re already wanting ahead to Summer time 2025, hoping for the same situation, it’s most likely price mentioning that “summer time just isn’t peak season” just isn’t the identical as “summer time is low season.” On the contrary, the shoulder season (post-Spring Break by means of Memorial Day) and early fall low season (mid-August after faculties return into session by means of fall break in late September or early October) are nonetheless slower than summer time. June and July are now not two of the busiest months of the yr, as they as soon as had been. That doesn’t imply they’re two of the slowest. There are different choices in addition to these extremes.
Within the near-term, I additionally wouldn’t rely on Walt Disney World’s summer time crowds staying this low. Wait occasions and attendance are virtually definitely going to steadily begin growing heading into the tip of this month, particularly since Disney didn’t make the identical mistake with ticket blockouts for Independence Day 2024 and Free Eating ‘season’ begins quickly. As famous above, crowd ranges are already reaching the 5/10 or reasonable vary, and I wouldn’t be in the least shocked to see 7/10 days earlier than the month is over and thru mid-July.
My expectation is that 3/10 crowd ranges are within the rearview mirror for this summer time, to not be seen once more till the second week of August. For those who needed mild crowds and excessive warmth, you most likely already missed your window of alternative. Nicely, not for the latter…however that’s most likely not a lot of a silver lining.
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why summer time crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and suppose it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits through the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!