Crowds will not be heavy and wait occasions aren’t excessive over Labor Day weekend at Walt Disney World. This shares our predictions for the September 2024 vacation, why we’re forecasting low to average crowd ranges all lengthy weekend, and day by day park suggestions if you happen to’re planning a go to.
By vacation weekend requirements, Labor Day weekend has not been busy unhealthy crowd-wise within the final decade. Although it’s the unofficial finish of summer time, most faculty districts in Florida and different states return into session a couple of weeks earlier than Labor Day. With out these key faculty districts, the vacation weekend is not the “final hurrah” of summer time crowds at Walt Disney World.
In a nutshell, Labor Day is just too late for summer time trip and too early for fall break. It’s in no man’s land, considerably just like Martin Luther King Day (between New Yr’s and winter break) or Memorial Day (between spring break and summer time trip). Crowd ranges are related in consequence, as the first draw is locals. If you’d like the Cliff Notes model of this put up, that’s it–no have to learn any additional except you need to dive deeper into the info, our different theories why it isn’t a busy vacation, and day by day park suggestions for the lengthy weekend.
We begin by mentioning this as a result of it looks as if yearly, there’s “shock” by the “unexpectedly” low crowds over the Labor Day weekend. For no matter cause, many Walt Disney World followers have outdated conceptions of crowds for Labor Day that haven’t been true for years. Many of those similar followers nonetheless overlook Columbus Day and Veterans Day, that are all the time approach worse.
With that stated, we begin by contextualizing Labor Day relative to different vacation weekends and not to different dates in August and September 2024. As all the time in relation to Walt Disney World crowds, your body of reference issues lots. This has turn into the slowest 6-week stretch of the 12 months for Walt Disney World, with reliably low crowds all through.
August via most of September stay inherently unpopular as a result of faculty simply went again into session, which is a big limiting issue on the pool of potential friends. Not solely that, however this is among the hottest stretches of the 12 months and it’s the center of hurricane season.
So it ought to be famous from the soar that Labor Day weekend shouldn’t be sluggish as in comparison with different dates within the early fall low season. Select dates at random in August via mid-to-late September and there’s an inexpensive probability they’re slower than Labor Day weekend. Accordingly, if you happen to’re doing a protracted journey that simply occurs to embody Labor Day weekend, you would possibly discover a spike. If you happen to’re simply deciding whether or not to go to for the vacation weekend within the first place, apprehensive in regards to the prospect of crushing crowds, worry not.
It’s actually the second state of affairs that this put up is geared toward–how busy Labor Day is at Walt Disney World by vacation weekend requirements, not relative to the remainder of August and September. As an instance, let’s have a look at previous crowd ranges with wait time information and graphs courtesy of Thrill-Information.com:
Above is a graph of crowd ranges and common day by day wait occasions throughout all of Walt Disney World for the whole thing of the final one year. On the far left aspect, you’ll see mid-August and September 2024. The primary set of inexperienced bars are August 28 via September 1. All of those are 1/10 crowd ranges.
Final 12 months, Labor Day weekend occurred September 1-4. Crowd ranges that Saturday have been 2/10 and Sunday was 4/10. Labor Day itself was additionally 1/10, with a median wait time of 24 minutes–that was 10 minutes slower than Saturday.
Nearly throughout the board, Summer time 2024 has been slower than final summer time. The typical wait time this July, for instance, was 6 minutes decrease than final July. (That will not appear to be a lot, nevertheless it’s a giant distinction.) Provided that, the sensible cash can be on Labor Day Weekend 2024 being much less busy than final 12 months. There are causes that might not be the case, which we’ll focus on in a bit.
In case you need extra comparisons, above is a graph of Labor Day wait occasions for the final a number of years. (The colour-coding is relative to different Labor Day dates, not annually as a complete.)
The busiest Labor Day was 2017, when the typical wait time was 33 minutes. To place that into perspective, the typical month-to-month wait occasions this for January via Could have been decrease than that. Inside these months, each single vacation weekend was busier.
Talking of holidays, Labor Day is the slowest vacation on common at Walt Disney World. Halloween is the one different vacation that’s shut, and that doesn’t actually matter (for my part) as a result of it’s not a federal vacation, isn’t celebrated by Walt Disney World outdoors of a tough ticket occasion, and happens on random days of the week.
So far as weekend holidays, Labor Day is corresponding to Mom’s Day by way of common wait occasions. In a standard 12 months, the Sunday of Labor Day is the busiest of the weekend (adopted by Saturday), and even these days don’t maintain a candle to Columbus Day weekend. Nevermind any of the November and December holidays…and even the winter and spring ones.
Suffice to say, Labor Day is the weakest vacation weekend of all the 12 months from an goal and historic perspective. And it’s not even a remotely shut name. We in contrast it to Memorial Day and MLK Day above, however each of these beat it handily. Labor Day weekend wait occasions are decrease than all different non-fake holidays. (Sorry, Worldwide Discuss Like A Pirate Day and Whacking Day. We nonetheless love you.)
If you happen to’re questioning why Labor Day gained’t be busier (above and past it being within the low season after faculty goes again into session), this part will clarify that. Truthful warning: a lot of what’s mentioned right here is similar to our put up analyzing low wait occasions for Fourth of July.
The entire rationale from that may maintain true when utilized to Labor Day Weekend, too. The large one right here is that many cost-conscious shoppers have been pushed away from weekends by larger costs on park tickets, lodging, and airfare. That’s the case even on common Friday and Saturday nights. Unsurprisingly, it’s much more pronounced for the vacation weekend.
The above chart reveals the nightly customary room charges at Disney’s Pop Century Resort. Discover the distinction in charges for August 30 via September 1 as in contrast with the times earlier than and after? It’s the very same story with date-based pricing for park tickets, and I’m guessing that if I pulled up a versatile calendar on Southwest Airways, it could present one thing related.
The underside line is that friends with flexibility are going to decide on completely different dates in that timeframe. We all know this as a result of this has been occurring all 12 months lengthy–folks have been gravitating in the direction of cheaper days of the week, and cheaper weeks throughout the similar common date-ranges.
With it not being peak trip season, the most important drivers for Labor Day attendance at Walt Disney World are Southerners, diehard followers wanting a fast getaway, and locals. Nonetheless, each the Pixie Go and the Pirate Go–two inexpensive admission choices for locals–are blocked out for the whole thing of Labor Day weekend (August 30 to September 2, 2024). That’s much more Floridians than regular who thus wouldn’t be within the parks over the lengthy weekend, which ought to lead to an exaggerated model of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been speaking about for over a 12 months.
We’ve lengthy suspected that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of it was the one AP tier that was bought for over a 12 months. Though that hasn’t been the case for some time, inertia has most likely saved the discrepancy going. Floridians obtained used to paying a lower cost, discovered it labored out simply high quality for them, and didn’t improve when it got here time to resume. And at slightly over half the price of the Pirate Go, the worth is definitely proper–particularly for cost-conscious locals.
Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely concept. Nonetheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. Each time these passes (particularly Pixie Mud) are blocked out past their regular weekends, it reveals up in wait occasions information. This occurred, most just lately, over Independence Day weekend. That was one other vacation that was “surprisingly” sluggish. (Besides it wasn’t if you happen to’ve been listening to developments.)
A method 2024 will probably be completely different from final 12 months is by way of discounted tickets. There are two important choices at present, the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket, which is legitimate via September 28, 2024 with an advance park reservation. Extra important is the 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket, which is legitimate via September 22, 2024.
These are vastly in style promos that may save guests a ton of cash (over $100 per individual!) they usually’re additionally repeats of offers that have been provided final 12 months. The important thing distinction is that each of these aforementioned ticket offers have been blocked out for the dates round Independence Day and Labor Day.
Consequently, there have been studies of the parks being “lifeless” or “ghost cities” final Fourth of July that made nationwide information and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. He attributed the slowness to climate and the exhaustion of pent-up demand. Whereas these have been undoubtedly contributing elements, the larger variable was the ticket blockout. We all know this as a result of Labor Day was a repeat of Independence Day.
Disney discovered from that mistake and didn’t block out these ticket offers for Labor Day weekend. Which means, in all probability, Labor Day 2024 will probably be busier than final 12 months. That’s to not say it’ll be busy–it most likely gained’t for the explanations mentioned above. We simply need to point out this as a countervailing issue; a cause to anticipate barely larger crowds than final 12 months.
With that stated, crowds have been trending decrease this summer time, with June and July down considerably year-over-year and August exhibiting related indicators of softness. The one significant exception to that was Fourth of July, which was up year-over-year however nonetheless very sluggish by goal and historic measures. (And actually, I’m unsure if it being slower than 2023 would’ve even been potential.)
Talking of which, there are the traditional crowd patterns for Independence Day vs. Labor Day. All else being equal, Fourth of July Weekend is normally a lot busier than Labor Day. And in contrast to the comparability to Columbus Day and Veterans Day, all else truly does appear to be equal right here. So it could stand to cause that August 30 to September 1, 2024 ought to be even slower than July 1-4!
For reference, wait occasions peaked on July 1 at 31 minutes (3/10 crowd stage). July 2 had a 30 minute common; July 3-4 have been 25-26 minutes and 1/10 crowd ranges. I wouldn’t go so far as predicting decrease crowds for Labor Day weekend, if solely as a result of these numbers are so low that the safer guess is a rise–there’s not a lot room for them to drop even additional, even when that’s what our indicators level in the direction of.
Truthfully, the outcome-determinative issue might be climate. That’s nonetheless an unknown, nevertheless it’s most likely protected to forecast extra of the identical: excessive warmth and humidity…and perhaps rain. (Similar to the opposite 44 weeks of summer time in Florida.)
As somebody who plans on spending plenty of time within the parks this Labor Day, I hope that isn’t the case. I’d fortunately take unseasonably gentle temperatures that draw extra locals out of the consolation of their A/C at residence and into the parks, even when which means 4/10 crowds or larger.
There are different wildcards. The primary is Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion, which not solely attracts guests to Florida but in addition throws a monkey wrench into attendance dynamics this time of 12 months. Second is the EPCOT Worldwide Meals & Wine Pageant, which begins Labor Day weekend and may lead to a spike in congestion or “seems like” crowds at EPCOT and will additionally draw diehards from out-of-state to take weekend getaways.
With that in thoughts, we all the time get questions on when to do every park over vacation weekends. Truthfully, that’s the far harder query than whether or not Labor Day will probably be busy or sluggish, because of the ‘conflicts’ with MNSSHP, begin of EPCOT Meals & Wine Pageant, and our customary Greatest & Worst Day of the Week Recommendation, which does not apply over any vacation weekends.
If it have been me and I didn’t have Park Hopper tickets, I’d do the next:
- August 30: EPCOT
- August 31: Disney’s Hollywood Studios
- September 1: Animal Kingdom
- September 2: Magic Kingdom
If I did have Park Hopper tickets, I’d do that:
- August 30: EPCOT
- August 31: Disney’s Hollywood Studios -> Magic Kingdom
- September 1: Animal Kingdom -> EPCOT
- September 2: Magic Kingdom -> DHS
Right here’s some rationalization for these picks, together with some which can be at odds with typical knowledge…
Doing EPCOT first places it on the second day of Meals & Wine Pageant. That’s after the preliminary day-one rush of bloggers and vloggers, however earlier than the weekend warriors arrive in full power. It’ll nonetheless be busy–busier than regular–however that is the most effective day for it. (Wait occasions at EPCOT gained’t be unhealthy, however congestion will–it’ll really feel far worse than the wait occasions counsel.)
The large pressure right here is between Monday and MNSSHP at Magic Kingdom. Usually, Monday is the busiest day of the week at Magic Kingdom. Additionally usually, Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion days are slower at MK. Nonetheless, Labor Day itself is generally slower and Magic Kingdom was not busy final 12 months on at the present time. So it’s truly a fairly straightforward choose. If you’d like a full day in MK, you’ll want to decide on a distinct date–swap Magic Kingdom and DHS.
Every part else works backwards from these decisions. Sunday is the busiest day, so prioritize the simplest park–Animal Kingdom. That leaves Saturday for Disney’s Hollywood Studios by technique of elimination. The Park Hopper picks function from an identical ‘work backwards’ perspective, ranging from not having the ability to keep late in Magic Kingdom on September 2, so then switching to the subsequent ‘hardest’ park (DHS) on the slowest day.
In the long run, it’s essential to emphasise that there are a number of ‘competing’ variables at play in relation to the park-specific suggestions, and a few or all of these may very well be ‘mistaken’ in consequence. I’ve the next diploma of confidence within the greater image prediction that Labor Day Weekend will probably be sluggish than the granular park picks. The excellent news is that the larger image prediction issues much more, and ought to imply selecting the most effective park every day issues lots much less!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World for Labor Day Weekend 2024? What do you suppose attendance will probably be like for this 12 months’s vacation weekend? What about as in comparison with this month, final 12 months, or the remainder of August and September? Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!