Wait occasions at Walt Disney World for Independence Day 2024 had been as soon as once more low, following up final 12 months when stories of the parks being “useless” or “ghost cities” made nationwide information and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. This discusses the explanations for decrease crowds throughout what was a preferred vacation.
At the least partly, this gained’t come as a shock to common readers of this weblog. Final month, we revealed Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. The title just about says all of it, so I’m not going to rehash all of that. The underside line is that summer time crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.
Summer season hasn’t been peak season for some time–since 2016. There have been a few years that had been anomalies in the course of the pent-up demand interval, which might be an enormous cause why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer time slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer time has constantly been sluggish over the past 7 years.
You additionally may recall that Independence Day 2023 was downright useless at Walt Disney World. It was such a scorching subject that it drew a proof from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably unhealthy climate. He wasn’t mistaken…however he additionally wasn’t utterly appropriate.
Except for Independence Day, summer time crowd ranges had been decrease throughout the board final 12 months. Definitely not on par with the low season that adopted, however not what you’d count on if you happen to final skilled summer time at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Nicely…as long as you may endure the depraved climate. Minor asterisk.
The identical factor has been true as soon as once more this summer time, together with Independence Day 2024. Per Thrill-Knowledge, Walt Disney World as an entire had a crowd stage of 1/10 with a mean wait time of 26 minutes on July 4, 2024. For reference, that’s down as in comparison with the final two weeks of June, which had common wait occasions of 35 minutes (second to final week) and 31 minutes (final week).
Nonetheless, it’s up as in comparison with final Independence Day, when the typical wait time was solely 22 minutes–that was on par with a number of the slowest days within the August and September low season!
Not all parks had been equally uncrowded on July 4, 2024. Magic Kingdom outperformed barely; EPCOT did so massively, with an 8/10 crowd stage. These two parks being busiest is especially unsurprising since they’re the one two with particular Fourth of July fireworks exhibits and there’s at the moment a ticket deal that stops Park Hopping.
It’s additionally price mentioning that crowd ranges measure are statistical–which means they measure wait occasions, not congestion. Often, wait occasions are a superb proxy for crowds, however not all the time. Magic Kingdom and EPCOT fireworks viewing areas on Independence Day are a chief instance of this exception–and had been undoubtedly very busy.
Then there’s Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, which had been sluggish by any subjective or goal measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest common wait time–23 minutes–since Could 15. Hollywood Studios had a mean wait time of 25 minutes, which is extraordinarily low for DHS (take into account that it has a ‘top-heavy’ journey roster of sights that submit excessive wait occasions and stage exhibits that don’t submit wait occasions). July 4 was tied for the slowest day at DHS since final 12 months’s late summer time/early fall low season.
For reference, it additionally began as a sluggish summer time at Common Orlando, however they’ve since turned issues round. That improve kind of coincides with the launch of CineSational in mid-June; that could be correlation, although, as Walt Disney World additionally noticed a bounce across the similar time. In any case, Common Orlando has been noticeably busier this week, with 4/10 crowd ranges on July 4, 2024. (It’s price noting that the Common Mega Film Parade simply debuted, and appears wonderful.)
With wait occasions knowledge out of the way in which, let’s discuss doable theories as to why the Independence Day vacation weekend hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…
Economic system – I’m going to start out with two controversial ones, which can inevitably come up within the feedback–so may as effectively handle them within the physique of the article. Nobody can agree on the state of the U.S. economic system–not even economists. It is a weblog about Disney, so regardless that I’ve not too long ago watched The Huge Quick and Margin Name (thus making me an professional on this kind of factor), maybe it’s past our scope.
What I’ll say is that not each American is experiencing the identical economic system and there are conflicting statistics which have befuddled economists in terms of sturdy shopper spending–that they’ve simply kind of hand waved away as “YOLO spending.” (Actually, that most likely is sensible–folks acquired used to doing sure issues and spending sure methods in the course of the pent-up demand interval, resulting in life-style creep. Others reevaluated their priorities in the course of the pandemic.)
However none of that actually issues right here, as there’s key knowledge that tells a reasonably conclusive story. The TSA forecast a record-setting Fourth of July 2024 vacation journey timeframe. TSA projected to display screen greater than 32 million vacationers between Friday, June 28, and Monday, July 8, 2024. That’s a 5.4% year-over-year improve in journey for the vacation. That is after TSA has already set file after file for screenings in 2024, beating final 12 months and even pre-pandemic numbers of 2019.
For its half, AAA initiatives 70.9 million vacationers will head 50 miles or extra from residence over the Independence Day vacation journey interval. (Related as a result of AAA numbers cowl flying and driving.) AAA analyzed your complete Fourth of July week, plus the Saturday earlier than and the Sunday after the vacation. This 12 months’s projected variety of vacationers for that point interval is a 5% improve in comparison with 2023 and an 8% improve over 2019.
AAA reserving knowledge exhibits home airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week in comparison with final 12 months, and the typical worth for a home roundtrip ticket is $800. (That is really effectively below-trend for summer time as an entire; home airfare is down roughly 5% to 9.5% year-over-year.)
Based on AAA, gasoline costs are decrease than final 12 months when the nationwide common was $3.53. AAA additionally signifies that Orlando, Florida is among the prime journey locations this Independence Day vacation weekend. (Additionally making the checklist had been Seattle and Anchorage–not cities I’d usually affiliate with the Fourth of July.)
The Higher Orlando Aviation Authority expects Orlando Worldwide Airport (MCO) to have about 700,000 departing passengers over the nine-day interval from June 29 to July 7. There can be greater than 85,000 departures on Saturday, July 6, which is anticipated to be the best quantity day.
The underside line is that no matter points may exist with the U.S. economic system, the American shopper continues to be spending freely and going locations for Independence Day. It’s definitely not impacting journey as an entire, though it might have an effect on what customers are doing as soon as arriving at their locations.
Politics – Every time the subject of decrease crowds at Walt Disney World comes up, there are some commentators who rush to attribute this to politics. These similar voices had been surprisingly silent between Christmas and New 12 months’s Eve when Walt Disney World noticed file excessive wait occasions. (Similar goes for some other vacation week or time when the parks have been busy.)
I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero impression on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt for a second that some households have cancelled journeys in consequence. We’ve heard from many who’ve! However conversely, I additionally suspect others have been enticed to go to on account of Disney’s perceived politics. (Larger image, I believe each of those statements apply to the state of Florida as an entire, which is equally polarizing.)
What I do assume is that that is all occurring on the margins. That the typical visitor doesn’t a lot care or gained’t alter their trip plans attributable to politics. That there’s plenty of bluster, however it’s coming from a vocal minority and possibly even that group’s personal conduct doesn’t match their phrases. There are simply a half-dozen higher explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, particularly since attendance tendencies have had ups and downs within the final couple of years.
Regardless, it’s troublesome to conceive of politics as a proof for a slower Independence Day at Walt Disney World. No matter impression politics is or isn’t having, it’s throughout the board. We’re searching for theories as to why this vacation weekend, particularly, has seen a slowdown. It’s not like these upset with Disney’s politics are boycotting on the Fourth of July (probably the most patriotic day of the 12 months at Walt Disney World!), and as an alternative choosing September 17. That’s not how this works.
Pricing – Throughout the board, summer time at Walt Disney World is dearer than a couple of decade in the past for each tickets and lodge rooms. This explains why cost-sensitive customers with flexibility have shifted their journey dates to different occasions of 12 months than summer time. (It will additionally, a minimum of partly, clarify the rising recognition of January and February.)
Recognizing the fact that summer time costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of huge reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating provide.
These offers have helped and positively moved the needle for 2024 (which means numbers could be even worse however for these promos!), however there’s an enormous asterisk to this. These promos have additionally attracted extra cost-sensitive customers…and what that demo will do? Comparability store.
The Independence Day vacation weekend is a part of the “Summer season Vacation” room fee season, which is significantly dearer per night time than simply the common ole “Summer season” season earlier than and after. The latter isn’t low-cost within the first place–for planners who can simply maintain out till the second week in August, costs fall off a cliff.
It’s not simply pricier on-site accommodations or tickets (if company don’t purchase the aforementioned discounted ones). Nearly each facet of touring over the vacation weekend is dearer, since journey costs are largely demand-driven. As in comparison with the remainder of the summer time season, this implies larger common airfare, rental vehicles, off-site accommodations, and extra.
Climate – We’ve lined climate loads recently, so I don’t need to belabor this level. Particularly because it explains summer time tendencies, extra broadly, and never only one weekend. (And once more, together with pricing, climate paints an image of why January and February are getting busier and June and July are slowing.)
In a nutshell, Floridians keep residence when the forecast turns unseasonably scorching, humid or wet. July 4, 2024 noticed sweltering climate as soon as once more–with one other warmth wave in Central Florida. Highs have been within the mid-90s with warmth indices round 105° to 112° and Warmth Advisories in place. That is undoubtedly sufficient to get some locals to alter their Fourth of July plans.
Vacationers can not rapidly pivot and people already booked gained’t cancel–however they’ll doubtless spend much less time within the parks per day. So whereas they could possibly be shifting journeys away from the summer time months attributable to extra stories of oppressive climate, it’s not like those that do e-book Fourth of July journeys are staying away from the parks. At the least, not disproportionately versus different summer time days.
As a lot as I hate excessive warmth and humidity, I believe it’s overblown as a think about decrease Fourth of July crowds. Summer season as an entire, certain. However it’s not the principle cause why Walt Disney World has seen a disproportionate decelerate over the Independence Day weekend the final couple years, even when it’s the excuse Bob Iger used final 12 months.
Annual Passes – Saving what I believe is one of the best principle for final is Annual Passes. It is a multifaceted one. First, each the Pixie Move and the Pirate Move–two reasonably priced admission choices for locals–are blocked out the majority of Independence Day weekend (July 3 to July 6/7). That’s much more Floridians than regular who thus wouldn’t be within the parks over the lengthy weekend, which ought to lead to an exaggerated model of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been speaking about for over a 12 months.
We’ve lengthy suspected that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of it was the one AP tier that was offered for over a 12 months. Though that hasn’t been the case for some time, inertia has most likely saved the discrepancy going. Floridians acquired used to paying a lower cost, discovered it labored out simply advantageous for them, and didn’t improve when it got here time to resume. And at just a little over half the price of the Pirate Move, the value is definitely proper–particularly for cost-conscious locals.
Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely principle. Nonetheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. Every time these passes (particularly Pixie Mud) are blocked out past their regular weekends, it exhibits up in wait occasions knowledge. Bear in mind again to early-on on this Spring Break season, when the parks had been packed earlier than what ought to’ve been the height–after which had been useless the next weeks throughout Orange County’s recess?
That was not-so-coincidentally earlier than and after a prolonged Pixie Mud Move blockout. There are numerous different examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney repair” earlier than a blockout after which decrease crowds throughout it. It additionally occurs yearly in January when the blockouts elevate, and occurred final 12 months for Independence Day and Labor Day. This clarification is well-supported by two years of information.
My second principle right here is much less supported by knowledge. It’s that fewer Floridian households and good friend teams all have the upper tiers of Annual Passes (or APs in any respect), and are thus choosing vacation gatherings and actions that everybody can do to keep away from exclusion. Anecdotally, that is one thing we’ve felt firsthand (and have heard from loads of others).
Whereas it was the case that whole good friend teams had larger tier Annual Passes at Walt Disney World or Disneyland and made the parks their default hangout spot, that’s no longer the case. Anecdotally, I’d additionally add that that is interconnected with climate.
Independence Day gatherings are sometimes all-day affairs (whether or not on the parks or elsewhere) for locals, with the excessive warmth and humidity making that much less fascinating–particularly when you possibly can drop in for a night and catch fireworks any ole night time later in July. All of this mixed makes yard barbecues, seaside days, and so forth., extra interesting to Floridians (and Californians) than the parks.
In the end, my robust suspicion is that the final issue–Annual Passes–is the end result determinative one. That if you happen to took the precise vacationer attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the common Annual Passholder attendance for this summer time, the quantity would come out wanting pretty near regular Summer season 2024 days at Walt Disney World. Possibly even larger than regular.
However once more, “regular” by Summer season 2024 requirements continues to be a shadow of what issues had been like earlier than 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for a minimum of a few years. It was not a peak season vacation like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New 12 months’s Eve, and so forth., however it additionally wasn’t average–like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
For my part, that’s the place the opposite explanations come into play. Pricing is definitely the massive one. On condition that Walt Disney World has already priced out plenty of vacationers all through the summer time, it definitely doesn’t assist that the Independence Day weekend has even larger vacation weekend pricing. Price-conscious customers and anybody else comparability buying might be contemplating different weeks in consequence (particularly in the event that they erroneously concern that the Fourth of July weekend could have larger crowds).
It’ll be fascinating to see whether or not there’s a bounce-back in crowds after the vacation weekend concludes. Late June ended up seeing a slight spike, which is changing into typical of summer time season. Often, there’s a second spike on the finish of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘final hurrah’ summer time vacationers taking journeys earlier than college goes again into session. After this weekend’s blockouts conclude, I might see a gradual improve in crowd ranges by means of the top of July 2024. It’s protected to say these numbers, no matter they’re, will drop in early August.
The massive wildcard this 12 months is Free Eating (which wasn’t supplied final 12 months), which simply began at the start of the month. My intestine says that’ll have a extra pronounced impression on ADRs than crowd ranges, because the promotion hasn’t moved the needle that a lot on attendance previously (most company come from off-site and solely a small subset of on-site company e-book Free Eating). Regardless, I’d count on wait occasions to extend beginning July 8, 2024. It’s very troublesome to say by how a lot. This isn’t precisely a daring prediction given how low they at the moment are…just about just one method they will go!
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Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why Independence Day vacation weekend crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance tendencies in the course of the fall months that comply with this summer time dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!