College is again in session and crowds have plummeted to their lowest ranges in 3 years for the low season at Walt Disney World. This wait instances report covers knowledge for Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. It additionally gives commentary in regards to the why of attendance traits, ‘looks like’ crowds vs. wait instances, and forward-looking predictions for Fall 2024.
Walt Disney World has not been busy for the previous couple of months. It was a sluggish summer time at Orlando’s theme parks, as mentioned at size in Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Busy Season at Walt Disney World. That gives our theories as to why summer time was slower, in addition to why it’s not likely all that shocking.
In the course of the firm’s most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CEO Bob Iger reiterated this and warned traders of attendance softness and demand moderation by means of 2025. That’s additionally nothing new, as the corporate has cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney World. They’ve beforehand attributed this to the tip of “revenge journey,” lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and poor climate. The variations now are two-fold.
First, these warnings are now not nearly Walt Disney World. Again final yr when this began occurring throughout earnings calls, there was a distinction drawn between Walt Disney World and just about in all places else, with the distinction attributed to pent-up demand arriving earlier (and thus ending sooner) in Florida than California, Disney Cruise Line, and the worldwide parks. It made sense and is one thing we witnessed firsthand. Now, the remainder of the Parks & Resorts are feeling what started at Walt Disney World.
Second, there are now not unfavorable or tough comparisons for Walt Disney World. The fiftieth and pent-up demand ended over one yr in the past. The comparisons now are literally fairly favorable, and Walt Disney World remains to be reporting weaker year-over-year outcomes. This isn’t completely a narrative of attendance (the earnings calls don’t give attention to that as a key metric), however we’re seeing it play out by way of crowds, too. Therefore Walt Disney World simply wrapping up its slowest month and week since 2021!
As all the time, what’s coated in these “crowd” experiences is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. So much will be gleaned from posted wait instances, however it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
Posted wait instances provide perception into how busy Walt Disney World is, however they’re an imperfect measure of crowds. They’re virtually all the time inflated, some strains don’t put up wait instances, they don’t account for Lightning Lane modifications, EPCOT festivals, and so on. However, wait instances are the one goal measure of crowds that we have now. On-the-ground observations will be helpful, however additionally they have shortcomings.
Body of reference additionally issues. The vast majority of days in 2024 can be extra crowded than their counterparts a decade or extra in the past. Identical goes for evaluating this yr to 2020-2021. Actually, the one worthwhile historic comparisons are from 2022 to 2024 and 2018 to 2019. If you happen to’re anticipating crowd ranges on par with the Nineteen Nineties, Nice Recession or post-COVID reopening, you’re going to be dissatisfied–and conclude that Walt Disney World is “all the time busy.”
We simply wish to provide these vital caveats to emphasize the restrictions of crowd experiences and wait time knowledge for Walt Disney World. If you happen to suppose there are too many asterisks hooked up, that’s truthful–possibly one of these put up just isn’t for you. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the info and have a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Knowledge.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete over the course of the final yr.
What’s most fascinating about that is seeing a lower each single month since February. In a traditional yr, there could be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which summer time spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the final decade, this was the dynamic we had been seeing.
As an alternative, this yr has proven a sluggish and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Could to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! Unsurprisingly, August continued that pattern. In truth, let’s zoom out a bit additional…
The above graph exhibits month-to-month crowd ranges because the begin of 2019, and from that, we will see that August 2024 was the slowest month at Walt Disney World since October 2021.
For reference, October 2021 was a really bizarre time at Walt Disney World. As you would possibly recall, the Delta variant and reinstated masks guidelines put a serious damper on attendance, inflicting a deluge of cancellations from all kinds of company (albeit for 2, basically reverse, causes). That was additional exacerbated by fears of Walt Disney World’s fiftieth Anniversary drawing record-setting crowds. Clearly, it didn’t.
Due to the anomalies of crowd ranges in mid-2020 by means of early 2022, we seldom use these for drawing comparisons. They had been low for unprecedented causes that hopefully won’t ever be repeated once more. However, it is rather noteworthy each time crowd ranges fall to lows not seen since 2020-2021, as occurred final month.
With the week by week view, we will see that crowds had been pretty fixed this summer time. If you happen to look intently, you possibly can spot a downward pattern, however it’s gradual. There have been three slight spikes–on the tail finish of June, once more on the finish of July, and eventually proper earlier than college went again into session in August–however even these solely obtained numbers again to Could ranges. None of that is unusual for the summer time season; it was simply decrease this yr than prior to now.
What’s additionally not shocking is that crowd ranges have been dropping beginning with the second week of August. As with the month as a complete, the final week of August was the slowest at Walt Disney World because the final week of September into early October 2021.
Let’s zoom out to see the weekly knowledge since 2019:
That’s a shocking statistic at first blush–the bottom crowd week and month since 2021! Nevertheless it actually shouldn’t be. The identical week final yr was simply barely busier, with a 25 minute common and 1/10 crowd degree versus a 23 minute common and 1/10 crowd degree this yr. Two minutes can add up over the course of a day, however each weeks had been extremely sluggish–the 2 least busy weeks since October 2021!
Given the general trajectory of crowd ranges and the final week of August being reliably sluggish year-in and year-out, this shouldn’t be an enormous shock. I’m pretty assured in predicting the final week of August 2025 can even be sluggish. Whether or not it’s kind of busy than this yr most likely will depend on the broader economic system, Epic Universe, and the Disney Starlight evening parade in addition to a possible summer time occasion.
Particular person days illustrate principally the identical, however with extra bars.
From August 27 to 30, day by day had a mean wait time of 19-21 minutes. Once you’re taking a look at resort-wide numbers for a multi-day stretch, these are insanely low. Understand that a number of points of interest backside out at 10 minute or 13 minute wait instances even once they’re stroll ons. Then there are some movies that put up wait instances on the idea of how lengthy it’s till the following exhibiting. So for the stats to be this low, which means the headliners additionally needed to have far decrease wait instances than regular. And so they did!
I used to be within the parks doing field-testing each single day of that stretch (at first it was imagined to be Lightning Lane Multi Move testing, however I needed to postpone these plans as a result of it was too straightforward), and I used to be shocked by how low crowds had been. Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice with a posted 25 minute wait in the course of the center of the day (on a non-party day!), House Mountain at 10 minutes, and even Avatar Flight of Passage being a close to walk-on earlier than 3 pm! Regardless of my caveating above about ‘looks like’ crowds vs. wait instances, these numbers paint a wholly correct image of how issues felt.
Labor Day weekend truly noticed a slight spike in crowds, however nonetheless wasn’t unhealthy in any respect. The low crowds over the vacation made the rounds on social media, however this shouldn’t be in the least shocking for readers of this weblog. We defined the ‘why’ of that and provided historic stats again in Labor Day Weekend Isn’t Busy at Disney.
For park by park evaluation, we’ll begin with Magic Kingdom.
Magic Kingdom has already began its “porcupine sample” of crowds for Get together Season, with full working days being noticeably busier than days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Get together. (Word that this does not embrace wait instances throughout MNSSHP–solely earlier than it begins.) That is mirrored within the wait time knowledge and it’s much more evident from the in-park expertise. Suffice to say, all of Magic Kingdom’s 10 slowest days of the yr have come because the begin of August.
See Greatest & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof checklist of the least and most crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of crimson flag dates to keep away from in any respect prices.
Animal Kingdom has seen its crowd ranges all over this month. Simply final week, common wait instances ranged from 20 minutes in the future to 40 minutes one other day. That’s an enormous unfold–actually a doubling–and one with out an apparent clarification.
The excellent news is that, as all the time, early mornings and late afternoons stay “undefeated” and precise wait instances are minimal throughout these timeframes even on a busier day. Fortunately, these busier days must be far much less widespread over the course of September.
Over at EPCOT, wait instances have flatlined because the begin of summer time.
EPCOT is all the time a wildcard, however I’ll admit that this one caught me without warning. We all the time level out that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians usually tend to go to for festivals and ambiance than rides. This summer time was Weight-reduction plan EPCOT, explaining the decrease crowds as soon as Flower & Backyard ended.
Nonetheless, the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Competition is now underway and it nonetheless hasn’t actually spiked crowds. In truth, the primary two days of the occasion had 1/10 crowd ranges with 19 minute common waits. I used to be there for the primary 5 days of the occasion, and “looks like” crowds weren’t any worse. It was downright surprising, particularly because the climate for the primary few days was nice (by Florida in August and September requirements). I’d be involved about this if I had been Disney administration, and it underscores why they’ll’t simply cellphone within the festivals and anticipate locals to eat up re-microwaved leftovers.
Lastly, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
As all the time, that is the park with the very best common wait instances in all of Walt Disney World, owing to its disproportionate variety of headliners coupled with stage exhibits that put up no wait instances in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Could by means of the third week of August was pretty unremarkable at DHS.
Then got here final week, culminating in August 29. That day had a 20 minute common, which is insanely low by Disney’s Hollywood Studios requirements. Low because the crowds had been at EPCOT, I suppose Meals & Wine did pull folks away from DHS?
For the sake of comparability, right here’s a high-level have a look at the weekly wait time averages for Common Orlando. No shock right here–it was additionally the slowest week of the yr at Common (and August was the slowest month).
Common has additionally been holding restricted hours, with neither park open later than 8 pm throughout common operations all through September. One thing tells me that if all 4 Walt Disney World parks did this, followers wouldn’t be forgiving, however as all the time, Common will get a cross.
We’ve talked about it earlier than, however Common Orlando has had a tough yr with attendance down 9.3% and Comcast revealing that income at Common’s theme parks was down 11%. Comcast attributed the lower to a scarcity of latest points of interest in Orlando, and indicated that this downtrend was more likely to proceed till the opening of Epic Universe in 2025.
Turning to commentary, I truly don’t have a ton so as to add from my on-the-ground experiences. The wait instances, by and enormous, inform the complete story. There’s nothing contradictory within the looks like crowds neither is there any good technique to clarify away the low crowds. Certain, there was “some climate” over the vacation weekend, however final week was truly pretty nice (once more, by Florida in August and September requirements, which could be very a lot graded on a curve).
That is why I used to be so exhausting on the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Competition. Within the face of falling attendance, it feels a little bit like Walt Disney World is asleep on the wheel. I’m bullish in regards to the D23 bulletins and suppose Walt Disney World goes to be in nice form for 2027 by means of 2030 or so. These can be large drivers of attendance, a lot as Pandora by means of Cosmic Rewind supplied an enormous increase throughout that enlargement section.
The issue is that 2027, by my math, is 3 years away. What’s Walt Disney World’s plan for the brief time period? Disney Starlight Parade is a pleasant begin and could possibly be a unbelievable addition for subsequent summer time. However why cellphone within the EPCOT festivals proper now? Why not add leisure or give folks a compelling cause to go to proper now?! Discounting definitely helps, however it may well solely take them up to now. So what’s the remainder of the plan? It doesn’t appear to be there may be one.
Wanting ahead, our expectation is that crowds proceed falling for a minimum of a pair extra weeks. As mentioned in our checklist of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2025, September is the very best month of the yr to go to from a wait instances perspective. With solely a few exceptions, all the month sees beneath common attendance.
There’s actually no “unhealthy” time to go to so far as the September 2024 crowd calendar goes. The final week or two would be the busiest stretch of the month because of the expiration of ticket offers. Relying upon what number of locals purchased these and are dashing to make use of them on the final minute, September might find yourself being barely busier than August. Nonetheless, “busier” is a relative time period, as each months must be actually gentle in comparison with the whole lot of October. August and September are one of many final bastions of the low season at Walt Disney World.
This has been persistently true whilst attendance has spiked throughout different beforehand low season months. Whereas different low season months have gotten busier, September has stayed the identical–and (knock on wooden) all the time ought to stay that manner as a consequence of college schedules and fewer fascinating climate. There’s a chance that September 2024 can be busier than final yr as a consequence of worldwide guests, the tip of the ticket deal, or different wildcards, however it nonetheless shouldn’t be unhealthy by any goal metric.
Finally, our expectation is that attendance continues to lower over the course of the following couple weeks, however most likely not sufficient for September to take the crown from August because the least crowded month at Walt Disney World in 2023. The most important query might be whether or not final week will find yourself being the slowest since 2021, or if this week or subsequent week will dethrone it as soon as the mud settles.
Wanting ahead even additional, the large query marks are group occasions and conference crowds. There’s an out of doors likelihood that the final week of September sees an outsized spike due the arrival of those, plus early fall breaks for numerous college districts across the nation. However for essentially the most half, it ought to nonetheless be too early for all of that to meaningfully influence crowds.
My expectation is that the actual arrival of fall crowds coincides with Columbus Day weekend, and that continues to speed up with solely minor reprieves right here and there all through the vacation season. Early indicators level to October by means of December being the three busiest months of the yr (on common), albeit with the traditional pockets of average crowd ranges between the height vacation weeks. Who is aware of, although. Crowds have been falling all yr lengthy and, except for reductions, Walt Disney World has executed completely nothing to entice followers to return.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about lodges on our Walt Disney World Lodges Evaluations web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Evaluations. To save cash on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys put up takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the very best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every little thing it’s worthwhile to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on early fall crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for the remainder of the month or fall low season? If you happen to’ve visited throughout the final month, what did you consider wait instances? Have you ever executed Magic Kingdom in the course of the day of a MNSSHP evening? What about posted vs. precise wait instances? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!