Spring break is usually within the rearview mirror and summer time continues to be one other month-plus away, which means Walt Disney World is now now coming into “Shoulder Season.” This crowd report shares wait instances knowledge, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, and our on-the-ground observations about congestion and features. Plus, predictions on attendance ranges in Might and June 2024, and past.
We’ll begin by having a look again on the final month-plus of spring break season at Walt Disney World. Particularly, we’ll take a look at what our Spring Break 2024 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World bought proper and flawed with its predictions (apart from Orange County’s week off, which ended up being shockingly uncrowded), and simply how unhealthy Easter ended up being.
The excellent news is that the broad contours of the predictions–apart from that one badly bungled week–ended up being correct. Spring break season did unofficially start on March 8 and it began to fizzle out by the weekend after Easter because the Northerners began heading dwelling. Save for some spring break stragglers, ‘shoulder season’ arrived in full by Tax Day.
As at all times, what’s coated in these “crowd” studies is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. Rather a lot might be gleaned from posted wait instances, nevertheless it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds. Nevertheless, wait instances will not be the identical as “looks like” crowds or congestion.
There are a number of different variables that may affect “looks like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to experience breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week to percentages of visitors shopping for Genie+ or utilizing DAS. Past that laundry listing, wait instances are sometimes inflated, inaccurate, or in any other case manipulated by Walt Disney World. Phew.
Briefly, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million folks over the course of the final decade-plus. Earlier than going deeper into the dialogue of crowds, let’s dig into the info and take a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of thrill-data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
It’s truly been a surprisingly busy begin to 2024 at Walt Disney World, with the typical wait time in January being 40 minutes and the typical in February being 41 minutes, which is simply down barely as in comparison with December, which averaged 42 minutes (due largely to the madness of the final two weeks). Previous to that, no month had a 40 minute common since final April.
Because of the primary two months being busier than anticipated, we began discussing Re-Revenge Journey at Walt Disney World in 2024. We’ve theorized there’s a second wave or reverberation of pent-up demand that might end in a year-over-year improve in crowds after each month final 12 months after January was down as in comparison with 2022.
In the long run, final month ended up being on par with January and April 2024 is well-below development with a 36 minute common versus 41 minutes final April. That’s the month-to-date quantity, which is falling. April 2024 will virtually actually find yourself with a mean of 35 minutes or decrease. In fact, this isn’t an apples to apples comparability–Easter was early (in March) this 12 months.
Talking of which, above is a take a look at the weekly crowd ranges. The 7 bars on the far proper are what we’ll be taking a look at. The yellow bar on the very finish might be disregarded–that “week” is simply right this moment (April 22, 2024), and Monday is at all times the busiest day of the week–so it’s meaningless for the week as an entire.
The earlier two weeks are inexperienced bars, with 1/10 crowd ranges and averages of 30-31 minutes. These measure the post-spring break drop-off. The 2 weeks earlier than which can be dates bookending Easter, which is nearly at all times the busiest stretch of spring break. As predicted, that was true once more in 2024. The inexperienced bar previous to that was the surprisingly uncrowded week of Central Florida’s spring break.
Orange earlier than that was the kickoff of spring break, which was busy for causes beforehand mentioned–primarily the ‘final hurrah’ of the Florida resident ticket deal, conventions, youth sports activities, blockouts, and early spring breaks in Canada and elsewhere. That first week was busier than anticipated, however the massive shock was the sharp distinction and dropoff the next week.
Zooming in additional, we come to the resort-wide every day numbers for Walt Disney World.
The week main as much as Easter was unsurprisingly busy, with a little bit of a lull (comparatively) for the vacation weekend itself. No big shock there given blockouts and an absence of ticket offers. That is exactly what we’ve come to anticipate in such circumstances.
Extra shocking is that the next weekdays picked up proper the place the prior week left off, with Thursday, April 4 being the busiest day of spring break season. (Magic Kingdom was busier than any date throughout Christmas and New 12 months’s on April 4!) It’s not an enormous shock that this week was (virtually) on par with Easter; by advantage of the vacation falling earlier, extra faculties had the week after off.
What’s shocking is that following Thursday being so busy, and wait instances sharply plummeting over the weekend. In a single day, crowd ranges went from 9/10 on Friday to 2/10 on Saturday. That steep drop possible is because of weekend pricing and vacationers heading dwelling from trip earlier–a development we’ve seen time and time once more during the last year-plus.
Your complete week thereafter was much less busy, with crowd ranges choosing up for the next weekend. This possible comes right down to locals, blockouts, and climate. Nonetheless, these crowds are fairly insignificant as in comparison with spring break.
For these questioning how Walt Disney World’s wait instances evaluate to Common Orlando, the development is about the identical for the whole lot of spring break season. That features the slower Central Florida recess, busier early break and Easter, in addition to the spike on April 4. Common has additionally seen a slight rise in wait instances during the last week or so.
The similarities between the 2 are literally a bit eerie. Usually, one or the opposite not having AP or ticket deal blockouts this time of 12 months may end up in dramatic variations. Not so for spring break season. There are just a few days which can be markedly completely different, however the total traits for the final month-plus are extremely related.
Normally, Common has seen a extra pronounced slowdown on off-peak dates than Walt Disney World, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if there’s extra of a divergence for the upcoming shoulder season. In some unspecified time in the future, we’re additionally anticipating a point of ‘calm earlier than the storm’ at Common as locals and followers take “breaks” earlier than the opening of Epic Universe subsequent summer time. However that could possibly be fairly nicely masked by total vacationer traits.
As talked about in What Went Proper on Child Bricker’s First Disney World Journey, we spent the primary week of shoulder season (1/10 crowds; 30 minute common) within the parks and may affirm that each wait instances and congestion or looks like crowds had been down dramatically. It was an evening and day distinction as in comparison with my prior solo journeys to Walt Disney World this 12 months or late final 12 months, for that matter. Simply the bottom crowds I’ve noticed since final August and September, with the dearth of depressing climate being the important thing distinguishing issue.
There have been just a few noteworthy issues that I noticed by way of crowds, and the primary is that EPCOT was wholly missing in congestion–even on weekends. Curiosity in Flower & Backyard Competition already seems to be waning (very quick traces on the cubicles and nothing actually drawing crowds), and there’s nonetheless over a month to go. This might clarify each why the occasion was shortened by over a month, and why it actually is sensible to introduce a summer time competition.
Over at Magic Kingdom, I used to be shocked to see overflow Lightning Lane return traces. Granted, that is one thing that’s been getting progressively worse since final 12 months’s spring break, nevertheless it hasn’t been persistently unhealthy–it often corresponds with crowd ranges. This time, regardless of low crowds, there have been overflows for a lot of sights. This additional reinforces why Walt Disney World is cracking down on DAS abuse and misuse.
Apart from that, I’ve nothing insightful so as to add. We didn’t buy Genie+ in any respect, and nonetheless managed to do most of what we wished (admittedly a slower-paced journey with child) regardless of just one Early Entry day. A lot of late nights, although, and people proved extremely fruitful!
Trying ahead, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of spring break. In truth, as coated in the latest replace to our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are only a few ‘pink flag’ dates.
At this level, it’s mainly simply what’s presently on the ESPN Extensive World of Sports activities calendar for April 2024: 2024 ICU Junior World & World Cheerleading Championships, Cheerleading Worlds and Dance Worlds. All of these occasions happen this week or coming weekend and will trigger a slight bounce-back by way of crowds.
These are main dance and cheerleading competitions that enhance attendance on the parks and occupancy on the lodges, often the All Stars and Coronado Springs. Nevertheless, the affect on crowd ranges within the parks isn’t important as an entire–and tends to be overblown based mostly on anecdotal experiences, which might be fairly unhealthy. (That means that you might assume they’re a big adverse in case you’re caught in line for Haunted Mansion behind a gaggle of 100 cheerleaders…otherwise you may by no means see a single participant throughout a weeklong journey.)
Except for these cheer and dance occasions, that are price bringing to your consideration however not you fretting over, the excellent news is that it’s shoulder season. For these unfamiliar with the time period, “shoulder season” is the interval between two peak seasons. I suppose that’s as a result of the shoulders are under the “peak” of the physique, or the top. Wherein case, maybe we must always begin referring to September as butt-season? It has a sure understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by college breaks. Because of this, far fewer visitors in Disney’s core demo go to shortly after or earlier than a serious break. One main break (spring break) simply occurred, and one other (summer time trip) doesn’t begin for one more month-plus.
We see related situations different instances of 12 months, however Walt Disney World has executed a great job of filling the calendar with attendance-boosting occasions or in any other case attracting various audiences throughout these home windows. The most important exception to that is mid-August by means of late September and, to a lesser extent, the stretch between the tip of spring break and Memorial Day.
For reference, final 12 months’s shoulder season ran from roughly April 15 till the Friday earlier than Memorial Day. As we reported on the time, that was the Slowest Six Week Stretch for Walt Disney World Crowds Since 2021. That was a very massive deal then, because it signaled the tip of pent-up demand and was a dramatic drop as in comparison with 2022 by means of mid-April 2023.
With the advantage of hindsight, these dates are much less exceptional. Nonetheless fairly sluggish, however extra of a sign of what was to return as most dates till the center of the Halloween and Christmas season had been comparatively uncrowded. These weeks would find yourself being surpassed by mid-August to early October 2023, which is/was the slowest 10 week stretch since 2021.
It’s unimaginable to say with any diploma of confidence whether or not the 2024 shoulder season might be slower than final 12 months. I’m inclined to foretell that it’ll not. Final 12 months, Walt Disney World bought caught flat-footed by the tip of pent-up demand and scrambled to launch offers, lots of which didn’t launch till later in summer time. This 12 months, these had been launched in early April. That alone is a giant distinction, and could possibly be sufficient to buoy attendance.
Between higher offers and final 12 months providing such a low baseline, it looks like the good cash is predicting on larger crowd ranges for the 2024 shoulder season. With that mentioned, “larger” is a relative time period. The stretch between now and Memorial Day ought to nonetheless be fairly sluggish, with crowd ranges underneath 5/10 for the overwhelming majority of days.
In a nutshell, 1/10 to three/10 days are more likely than 5/10 to 7/10 days. Decrease crowds might be anticipated by means of mid-June, as there’s a slight spike for Memorial Day after which often one other drop thereafter. Even Memorial Day isn’t unhealthy by vacation weekend requirements–it’s not on par with holidays like Presidents’ Day, Columbus Day, or Veterans Day. These holidays are arguably “decrease profile” however find yourself being larger attendance boosters.
As an alternative, summer time trip crowds sometimes construct and decline regularly, with the height often occurring in July. Which means even early June 2024 ought to not see the worst of summer time trip crowd ranges. In a standard 12 months, June could be larger than Might, however decrease than July. In contrast to final 12 months, we do not anticipate a lull for Independence Day. Walt Disney World has “mounted” its ticket deal blockouts, which ought to treatment that.
With that mentioned, Walt Disney World hasn’t skilled a “regular” summer time in a number of years. Each single summer time since 2019 has had some monkey wrench thrown into the combination, and that features final 12 months with the aforementioned pullback in pent-up demand catching Walt Disney World flat-footed. I’d prefer to assume that there received’t be any surprises this 12 months…however who is aware of.
Regardless, I’m far more assured within the crowd forecast by means of Might 2024 than I’m in choosing the perfect & worst weeks in Summer season 2024. My hunch is that this summer time goes to be barely busier than final 12 months as a result of offers, however nonetheless not horrible (reasonable territory, largely). Summer season is not peak season at Walt Disney World–and hasn’t been for some time. With no opening date for Tiana’s Bayou Journey and nothing main introduced but, I don’t see this being the 12 months that modifications. We will see–it’ll be attention-grabbing to look at!
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Study lodges on our Walt Disney World Motels Critiques web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Critiques. To save cash on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Ideas for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a novel take a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the perfect place to start out is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every thing you have to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World throughout shoulder season between spring break and Summer season 2024? Have you ever visited previously through the month of Might? Had been you within the parks over the previous couple weeks? What did you consider the crowds? Any parks, instances of day, or days of the week noticeably higher or worse than the others? For those who’ve visited in previous weeks following spring break, did you discover a giant distinction in crowd ranges? Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation? Any questions we can assist you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!